The Bitcoin price has been relatively stagnant since reaching its all-time high of $108,135**, struggling to maintain a six-figure valuation. For instance, BTC briefly surpassed **$100,000 before dropping below $92,000 within a week.
This sluggish performance has sparked debates about whether the market has peaked and if the Bitcoin bull run is over. Yet, recent on-chain data indicates potential for further upside.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders (STH) Cost Basis
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode recently highlighted that the Bitcoin bull market might still be intact, based on the relationship between BTC’s price and the STH cost basis.
Key Metrics Explained:
- STH Cost Basis: The average purchase price of BTC held by investors for <155 days.
- Bull Market Indicator: BTC price typically stays above this level during rallies, signaling bullish sentiment.
- Bear Market Signal: A drop below the STH cost basis suggests investor losses and potential sell-offs.
Currently, Bitcoin trades ~7% above the STH cost basis ($88,135), implying short-term holders remain profitable and less likely to sell.
Market Implications: Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish Scenario:
- Sustained price above $88,135 could prolong the bull market.
- Positive on-chain sentiment may drive further buying.
Bearish Risks:
- A drop below $88,000 might trigger a trend reversal.
- Increased sell pressure if STHs exit at a loss.
As of now, BTC hovers near $94,000, down ~3% over the past week (CoinGecko).
Is a Crypto Market Rebound Likely?
The broader crypto market has faced significant declines, with large-cap assets shedding double-digit percentages. This has led to:
- Heightened bearish sentiment on social media.
- Contrarian signals: Historically, extreme pessimism precedes recoveries (e.g., 2024 Q4 rally).
👉 How to capitalize on market cycles
FAQs
1. What is the STH cost basis?
The average acquisition price of Bitcoin held by short-term investors (<155 days). It acts as a support/resistance level.
2. Why does the STH cost basis matter?
It reflects market psychology—prices above it signal confidence, while dips below may indicate panic selling.
3. Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
Current data suggests yes, as BTC remains above the STH cost basis ($88,135).
4. What could trigger a bear market?
A sustained drop below $88,000 could shift sentiment and invite deeper corrections.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin’s price action appears sluggish, on-chain metrics like the STH cost basis hint at continued bullish potential. Traders should monitor key levels ($88K support) and market sentiment for directional cues.