Published: June 30, 2025
Despite massive ETF inflows totaling nearly $11 billion** in Q1 2025 and corporate treasury purchases worth billions, Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to break past the **$100K–$110K resistance zone. Here’s why:
Long-Term Holders (LTH) Are Selling Pressure
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, attributes BTC’s stagnation to long-term holders (LTH) offloading their positions:
"Bitcoin’s original holders (6+ months) have been dumping on Wall Street since ETF approvals in January 2024, unloading their stakes."
📊 On-Chain Data Insights:
- 6-month holders (blue line): Accumulating (enriching) over the past two months.
- 2+ year holders (red line): Actively selling, creating downward pressure.
👉 Why whales are selling Bitcoin now
OTC Transactions Mask Demand
Large BTC purchases via over-the-counter (OTC) desks—often used by ETFs and institutions—don’t reflect on traditional order books or centralized exchanges (CEXs).
TXMC Trades noted:
"Older coins are being reactivated but aren’t hitting public markets. OTC transactions supply big buyers like ETFs, minimizing price impact."
⚠️ Supply Crunch Alert:
- Exchange reserves have dropped 20–30% since 2024, potentially setting up a future supply squeeze.
Whale Activity and Retail Retreat
- Whales (10K–100K BTC): Selling since 2017, per analyst Willy Woo. Many bought at $0–$800 and are now realizing 8–16-year gains.
- Retail Interest: Declined 10% in May–June 2025, reducing breakout momentum.
🎯 Contrasting Bullish Take:
VC Chamath Palihapitiya predicts BTC could hit $500K by October 2025, citing historical post-halving rallies.
FAQ: Bitcoin’s Price Stagnation
Q: Why isn’t BTC rising despite ETF inflows?
A: Long-term holders and whales are selling, counterbalancing institutional demand.
Q: How do OTC deals affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: They bypass public markets, reducing visible price impact.
Q: Could BTC surge later in 2025?
A: Yes—shrinking exchange supplies and historical cycles suggest potential for volatility.
👉 Learn how to track Bitcoin whale movements
Keywords: Bitcoin ETF, BTC price analysis, long-term holders, OTC transactions, whale activity, Bitcoin halving, $100K resistance
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