Core Takeaways
- Market Valuation: AAVE currently boasts a circulating market cap of $2.3B (FDV: $2.46B), with 43K new tokens released monthly.
- Regional Dominance: U.S. timezone investors are driving significant accumulation of AAVE tokens.
- Holder Profitability: Majority of large holders are profitable, albeit modestly, indicating substantial turnover since the 2021 bull run.
- Institutional Interest: Accumulation patterns reveal participation from deep-pocketed, strategic investors.
1. AAVE Tokenomics Overview
Supply Dynamics
- Total Supply: 16M AAVE (14.93M circulating).
Distribution:
- 13M migrated from LEND (2020).
- 3M allocated for ecosystem incentives (4.3K released monthly).
- Genesis Wallets: Hold 79K AAVE ($122M), showcasing long-term alignment.
2. On-Chain Holder Distribution
2.1 Top 10 Addresses
- Largest Holder: AAVE staking contract (2.99M tokens).
Notable Addresses:
- Address #9: 33K unmigrated LEND tokens ($50M), likely lost.
- Blockchain Capital: Holds 233K tokens, reflecting institutional conviction.
2.2 Supply Segmentation
- Project & Staking: 37.29% (includes user-staked tokens).
- Exchanges: Binance (13.07%), Coinbase, Kraken.
- Liquidity Pools: Balancer ($170M TVL), Uniswap ($13M).
- Cross-Chain: BSC (50K), Polygon (22.9K).
2.3 Staking Trends
- Peak: 3.6M staked (Feb 2021).
- Decline: Drop to 1.97M during 2022 bear market.
- Recovery: Now at 2.99M (24% rebound since May 2024).
3. Exchange Flow Analysis
Key Observations
- Net Inflows: 28K tokens to exchanges (Aug–Sep 2024), skewed by Coinbase’s custody services.
- Regional Activity: U.S. hours (UTC 15:00–17:00) show peak CEX transfers, suggesting American dominance.
- DEX vs. CEX: Trading volume leans toward centralized platforms, with Balancer/Uniswap as secondary hubs.
4. Large Holder Profiling
Metrics Snapshot
| Metric | Median Value |
|---------------------------|------------------|
| ROI | +20% |
| Hold Duration | 287 days |
| Daily Transactions (TPD) | 0.048 |
| Wallet Age | 654 days |
Cost Basis Clusters
- $85–150: High concentration (~60% of holders).
- $200+: Older, inactive bags (<10K tokens each).
- <70: High ROI cohort (minority).
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5. Recent Accumulation Trends (60-Day Snapshot)
5.1 Purchase Volume
- Range: 0–26K tokens ($0–400K).
- Top Tier: Only 5 addresses bought >14K tokens.
5.2 Accumulator Traits
- Wallet Age: Median 281 days (newer vs. legacy holders).
- Portfolios: 50% hold ≤3 tokens; 25% exclusively AAVE.
Assets Under Management (AUM):
- 26 addresses: $0–500K.
- 9 addresses: $1.5M–20.5M.
5.3 Asset Preferences
- AAVE → ETH → USDT → ONDO/FET (traditional assets favored over memecoins).
FAQ
Q1: Is AAVE’s staking APY competitive?
A: Current yields hover around 4–6%, appealing for long-term holders amid low volatility.
Q2: Why does U.S. trading dominate?
A: Institutional custody services (e.g., Coinbase Prime) attract deep liquidity during U.S. market hours.
Q3: Are newer holders replacing OGs?
A: Yes—287-day median hold time confirms post-2023 entrants now control majority supply.
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Methodology: Data spans Ethereum/BSC/Polygon chains, excluding MEV bots and exchange proxies. UTC timestamps standardize activity windows.