The recent decline in cryptocurrency prices has many investors concerned about an impending "crypto winter"—a prolonged bear market. Du Jun, co-founder of Huobi (one of the world's largest crypto exchanges), shared his perspective with CNBC, suggesting Bitcoin's next bull run may not arrive until late 2024 or early 2025.
Bitcoin's Bull Cycles and Halving Events
Du Jun emphasizes the strong correlation between Bitcoin's bull markets and its halving mechanism, programmed into Bitcoin's code to occur roughly every four years. Key historical patterns:
- 2020 Halving: Occurred in May, followed by Bitcoin's all-time high of $68K in 2021.
- 2016 Halving: Preceded another major rally, with Bitcoin peaking in 2017.
"We're likely in the early stages of a bear market," Du Jun notes. "Based on past cycles, the next bull run could take until late 2024 or early 2025."
Factors Influencing the Next Halving
While the halving is a predictable event, Du Jun highlights variables that could disrupt timing or market impact:
- Geopolitical tensions
- COVID-19 pandemic developments
- Macroeconomic shifts
👉 Discover how Bitcoin halvings shape long-term investment strategies
FAQ: Bitcoin Market Cycles
Q: How does Bitcoin's halving affect its price?
A: By reducing mining rewards (new supply), halvings historically create scarcity-driven price surges in subsequent years.
Q: Why does Du Jun predict a prolonged bear market?
A: Past cycles show ~4-year intervals between bull peaks, with extended consolidation phases.
Q: Should investors wait until 2024 to buy Bitcoin?
A: Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) during bear markets often outperforms timing-based strategies.
👉 Learn expert tactics for crypto bear markets
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- Investment Insight: While short-term volatility persists, long-term holders historically benefit from post-halving rallies.
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