1.0 Investment Trends Overview
Messari's latest report highlights a pivotal shift in crypto investment strategies for 2024, emphasizing:
- Bitcoin's dominance as digital gold
- Ethereum's challenges against competitors like Solana
- Emerging narratives: AI integration, DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks), DeSoc (Decentralized Social Media), and DeSci (Decentralized Science)
"Crypto’s market cap nearly doubled after moving beyond the 'Web3' PR buzzword," notes Messari researchers. The focus now returns to foundational crypto principles.
1.1 Bitcoin: The Digital Gold Standard
Key Points:
- Long-term bullish case: Bitcoin’s fixed supply (21M BTC) and institutional adoption (ETFs, sovereign buyers) strengthen its store-of-value narrative.
- MVRV Ratio: At 1.3, Bitcoin remains undervalued compared to historical cycle peaks (3+ indicates market tops).
- Market dominance: Expected to reclaim 60% amid macroeconomic uncertainty and ETF-driven rallies.
"Sometimes simplicity wins: 1 BTC = 1 BTC."
1.2 Ethereum’s Crossroads
Critical Observations:
- Post-Merge dynamics: ETH transitions toward a "net deflationary" asset but faces stiff competition.
- Investment thesis: ETH resembles Visa (a mature player) rather than a high-growth tech asset.
- Performance lag: ETH’s "ultrasound money" narrative lacks liquidity data support; SOL outperformed ETH by 6x YTD.
"Ethereum lacks a clear path to outperform Bitcoin or high-beta altcoins."
1.3 Beyond BTC & ETH: The "Other 25%"
Opportunities in:
- Liquid altcoins: Projects with strong liquidity-to-market-cap ratios (e.g., Kaiko’s liquidity rankings).
- Niche sectors: AI tokens ($AKT, $TAO), DePIN, DeSoc (e.g., Farcaster), and DeSci (e.g., VitaDAO).
👉 Explore top altcoin liquidity strategies
1.4 Private Markets Show Green Shoots
Notable VC Activity:
- Rebounding investments: $500M+ deals in late-stage crypto startups (tracked via Messari’s funding screener).
- Top funds: Multicoin, 1confirmation, and Syncracy Capital (outperforming BTC/ETH benchmarks).
1.5 IPO Watchlist
- Circle: Potential 2024 IPO amid stablecoin growth ($8B revenue in H1 2023).
- Galaxy Digital: Positioned to capitalize on market consolidation ($3B market cap).
1.6 Policy Headwinds
U.S. regulatory uncertainty persists, but crypto’s alignment with AI and decentralized infrastructure could drive bipartisan support post-2024 elections.
1.7 Developer Momentum
Despite bear markets, EVM smart contracts grew 300% QoQ (Alchemy data). AI developer adoption could ignite the next crypto rally.
1.8 AI & Crypto Synergy
Why it matters:
- Data integrity: Crypto’s timestamping combats deepfakes.
- Machine economies: Bitcoin’s energy-backed scarcity fits AI’s need for stable currency.
"AI agents will prioritize energy-efficient blockchains."
1.9 Emerging Narratives: DePIN, DeSoc, DeSci
| Sector | Market Potential | Key Projects |
|---|---|---|
| DePIN | $5T cloud infrastructure industry | Helium, Akash |
| DeSoc | $230B social media revenue | Farcaster, friend.tech |
| DeSci | Revolutionizing peer-reviewed research | VitaDAO |
👉 Discover DePIN investment opportunities
FAQs
Q: Why is Messari bearish on Ethereum?
A: ETH’s scalability struggles and competition from Solana/L2s weaken its growth potential vs. Bitcoin.
Q: What makes DePIN a compelling bet?
A: Decentralized infrastructure (e.g., GPU networks) disrupts Big Tech’s cloud monopolies.
Q: How to invest in AI-crypto convergence?
A: Look for tokens incentivizing verifiable compute (e.g., $AKT) or data marketplaces.
Read Messari’s full report here.