Understanding the RHODL Ratio Breakthrough
First, let's revisit the BTC:RHODL indicator highlighted in our October 2024 report. This metric measures the ratio of "BTC held for one week" to "BTC held for 1-2 years", reflecting short-term versus long-term holder behavior.
Historically, around halving events, the RHODL indicator fluctuates extensively while prices trade sideways. Our previous analysis noted an 8-month consolidation period—suggesting an imminent breakout. As predicted, the RHODL breakout recently occurred, propelling BTC to nearly $100,000.
Time and Space: Projecting the Bull Run’s Final Phase
1. Temporal Outlook: Long-Term Holder Trends
The chart below tracks BTC price against the percentage of circulating supply held by long-term investors (LTHs). Key observations:
- First Decline: Early bull phase sees LTHs selling during price rebounds.
- Rebound: Mid-cycle sideways action accumulates long-term holdings.
- Second Decline: Late bull run triggers profit-taking, driving the indicator down.
Current data indicates we’ve entered the second decline phase. If patterns hold, the bull run may last 4-7 months.
2. Spatial Outlook: MVRV and Price Targets
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio—averaging investor profitability—is modeled to peak at 3.5 this cycle.
A supplementary oscillator (0-100 scale) divides the price journey into six stages. Presently scoring 71, BTC’s potential peak could exceed $133,000. Conservative estimates suggest:
- Minimum breakout: $145,000 (based on crossing 4/7 top-pricing indicators).
Tactical Execution: Topping Strategies
Our proprietary 7 top-pricing indicators (visualized below) historically signal peaks when BTC breaches 5-6 lines within weeks.
Key Insight:
As price surpasses each indicator, progressively exit positions.
- 2013/2017: 6 lines breached.
- 2021: 5 lines.
- 2025 (Est.): 4 lines → $145,000+ target.
Conclusion
The bull run’s finale is predictable in duration and price range (barring black swans). While timing the peak is challenging, securing profits is highly probable.
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FAQ
Q1: What’s the RHODL indicator’s significance?
A: It flags shifts from long-term to short-term holder dominance, often preceding major price moves.
Q2: How reliable are the 7 top-pricing indicators?
A: Backtested across cycles, they’ve consistently marked peaks when multiple lines are breached.
Q3: Why $145,000 as a conservative target?
A: It’s the level of the 4th pricing indicator—historically, breaching 4+ lines confirms a top.