As the bull run loses momentum, long-term holders (whales) and new investors have begun offloading their XRP holdings. Does this signal a potential drop below the $2 support level?
XRP's Meteoric Rise and Subsequent Cooling Off
Between October 2024 and January 2025, XRP experienced one of its most explosive rallies during this market cycle—soaring 600% amid optimistic sentiment about crypto-friendly regulatory developments. Key metrics during this period:
- 490% increase in quarterly average daily active addresses
- 7-year price highs reached
- Realized market cap surged from $30.1B to $64.2B
However, recent data suggests a decline in speculative interest:
- New investors now face diminishing returns
- Profit/loss ratios show more locked losses than gains
- Whale outflows indicate large holders reducing positions ($1B+ sold at ~$2.10 recently)
Market Sentiment Shifts
Glassnode analysts note:
"The dominance of new investors (62.8% of realized cap) and reduced capital inflows since February 2025 point to waning retail confidence—a trend that could extend market-wide."
Technical Analysis: Can $2 Hold?
While XRP has repeatedly found support at $2, each retest increases vulnerability. Key observations:
Short-Term Indicators
- Bullish divergence on 1H/4H charts (price makes lower lows while RSI shows higher highs)
- Potential bounce range: $2.08–$2.13 if broader market recovers
Longer-Term Risks
- Inverse head-and-shoulders pattern targeting $1.07
- Next major support: 200-day MA (~$1.70–$1.80)—untested since November 2024
👉 Why institutional interest in XRP could rebound
FAQs
Q: What’s driving XRP’s current price pressure?
A: Combined whale sell-offs, reduced retail inflows, and profit-taking after parabolic gains.
Q: Is $2 a strong support level?
A: While historically significant, repeated tests weaken its reliability—watch for volume spikes on bounces.
Q: Could regulatory news revive XRP demand?
A: Yes. Positive developments in Ripple’s ongoing cases or ETF approvals might reignite momentum.
👉 How to track whale movements in real-time
Key Takeaways
- Monitor whale activity and exchange netflows for trend reversals
- A close below **$1.95** could accelerate declines toward $1.70
- Any bullish catalyst requires sustained buying volume to break current resistance
Disclaimer: This analysis contains no investment recommendations. Conduct your own research before trading.