Bitcoin’s recent price volatility has ignited discussions among analysts about whether the cryptocurrency is transitioning into a bear market. Renowned analyst Ali Martinez provided a detailed assessment using technical indicators and on-chain data, suggesting that while Bitcoin may be entering a corrective phase, certain factors could still support a rebound.
Key Indicators Signaling Bearish Momentum
Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse
Martinez highlighted the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse, a metric tracking Bitcoin movement between spot and derivative exchanges. The data indicates BTC is in a "corrective phase," typically characterized by price declines or stabilization after a strong rally. Bitcoin has corrected 23% from its peak of over $109,000 in late January.
MVRV Ratio and Market Cycle Indicator
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has turned negative, historically signaling weakening momentum. Martinez’s Market Cycle Indicator also suggests Bitcoin could be in the early stages of a bear market, aligning with past downturns.
Miner and Whale Activity
On-chain data reveals that miners sold over $27 million in Bitcoin profits**, often a signal of increasing market caution. Additionally, **whales liquidated more than $260 million in BTC, contributing to selling pressure.
Declining Capital Inflows
Monthly capital inflows into Bitcoin have plummeted from $135 billion in December 2024** to just **$4 billion in March 2025, indicating weaker demand and a potential lack of fresh buying power.
Critical Support Levels to Watch
Despite bearish signals, Martinez identified crucial support zones that could stabilize Bitcoin’s price:
- $66,000–$69,000 Range: A key area where buyers may re-enter. Data from IntoTheBlock shows 750,000 investors purchased 313,000 BTC near this range.
- $69,354 Support Level: Reinforced by Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution, suggesting strong holding activity.
- 200-Day SMA & Mayer Multiple: Indicate $66,000 as another critical level to monitor.
Potential Bullish Scenarios
Martinez noted that rising global liquidity levels historically aid Bitcoin recoveries, with April potentially marking a turning point. If BTC reclaims $93,700 as support**, it could signal renewed bullish momentum, possibly pushing toward **$111,000.
In a surprising twist, Bitcoin surged 4% to $85,900—a 10-day high—following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady.
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FAQs
Is Bitcoin in a Bear Market?
While indicators suggest a potential shift toward bearish momentum, key support levels and historical liquidity trends could still fuel a recovery.
What Are the Key Support Levels for Bitcoin?
The $66,000–$69,000 range is critical, backed by strong investor activity and on-chain data.
Can Bitcoin Recover Soon?
April may be pivotal, as global liquidity trends historically correlate with BTC rebounds. Reclaiming $93,700 could confirm a renewed uptrend.
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