BTC Max Pain Analysis for July 2025

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BTC Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF Overview

Stock Symbol: BTC (NYSE)
ETF Type: Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust
Closing Price (Jul 3, 2025): $48.65 (+0.021%)
Volume: 646,301

Market Data


BTC Max Pain Summary

The max pain price for BTC options expiring on July 18, 2025, is $45.00. This represents the strike price where the largest number of option holders (both calls and puts) would incur financial losses at expiration.

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BTC Option Chain Breakdown

Key Expirations and Max Pain Levels

Expiration DateCalls (ITM/OTM)Puts (ITM/OTM)Max PainPrice vs. Max Pain
Jul 18, 20251,070 / 1,59781 / 901$45.00+8.11%
Aug 15, 202566 / 4960 / 119$45.00+8.11%
Sep 19, 2025931 / 1,873107 / 363$40.00+21.63%
Dec 19, 2025511 / 47018 / 82$35.00+39.00%
Jan 16, 20261,031 / 1,887147 / 476$35.00+39.00%
Jan 15, 2027904 / 922219 / 128$25.00+94.60%

Key Metrics


Why Max Pain Matters for BTC Traders

Max pain theory suggests that as expiration approaches, BTC's price may gravitate toward the max pain strike ($45.00 for July 2025). This occurs because market makers hedge their positions, creating price pressure.

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FAQs

1. What is max pain in options trading?

Max pain is the strike price where the highest number of options (calls and puts) expire worthless, causing maximum financial loss to holders.

2. How does max pain affect BTC’s price?

Market makers often adjust hedges to minimize losses, potentially pushing BTC’s price toward the max pain level near expiration.

3. Is a low put/call ratio bullish for BTC?

Yes, a ratio below 0.7 typically indicates bullish sentiment, as seen in BTC’s current 0.22 ratio.

4. Why are longer-dated max pain prices lower?

Further expirations (e.g., 2026–2027) reflect market expectations of potential downside or volatility.

5. Should traders use max pain as a standalone indicator?

No. Combine max pain with technical analysis, volume trends, and macroeconomic factors for better decision-making.


Key Takeaways

For real-time BTC options data and charts, visit OKX.