A recent study by Swan, a Bitcoin financial services company, reveals that most alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) experience rapid and systemic depreciation when measured against Bitcoin (BTC). The findings underscore Bitcoin's role as a more stable asset for capital preservation in the volatile cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Performance Analysis
Swan shared its insights in a detailed thread on X (formerly Twitter), stating:
"Altcoins don’t just underperform Bitcoin. They collapse against it."
The study analyzed the top 300 altcoins over five years, tracking how quickly these assets lost 90% of their value relative to Bitcoin after reaching all-time highs (ATH).
Key findings:
- Median time to -90% drawdown: 10–20 months.
- Fastest collapses: Terra (LUNA), Ontology Gas (ONG), and Bitgert (BRISE) hit -90% in under two months.
- Slower declines: Established altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and XRP took 36 months, Litecoin (LTC) 69 months, and Monero (XMR) six years.
👉 Discover why Bitcoin dominates altcoins
Systemic Issues in the Altcoin Market
Swan’s data suggests altcoins inevitably depreciate against Bitcoin, with only 45 of the top 300 altcoins yet to experience a 90% drop. Even these "survivors" average a 76% decline from peak value, with the best performer still down 43% against BTC.
"Bitcoin remains the benchmark for capital preservation. These assets don’t hedge Bitcoin — they bleed against it."
Why Altcoins Fail to Deliver Value
- Survivorship bias: Focus on few successful projects obscures widespread decay.
- Gambling mentality: Investors chase short-term gains despite systemic risks.
- Lack of fundamentals: Most tokens rely on hype rather than lasting utility.
Is Altcoin Season Over?
Market saturation exacerbates these challenges:
- Over 1.8 million new tokens launched monthly (CoinMarketCap data).
- 89% of Binance-listed tokens (2025) are in the red.
- Fragmented liquidity delays any potential altcoin rally.
Bitcoin’s growing dominance—fueled by institutional adoption and regulatory clarity—further marginalizes altcoins. Analysts question if traditional altcoin seasons will return, as Bitcoin continues to overshadow speculative alternatives.
👉 Learn how Bitcoin outperforms altcoins
FAQs
Q: Why do altcoins decline against Bitcoin?
A: Bitcoin’s scarcity, adoption, and store-of-value properties make it more resilient, while altcoins often lack comparable fundamentals.
Q: Are there any exceptions to altcoin underperformance?
A: Rarely. Even top altcoins eventually depreciate significantly against BTC.
Q: What causes rapid altcoin collapses?
A: Hype-driven pumps, weak use cases, and liquidity crunches accelerate declines.
Q: Should investors avoid altcoins entirely?
A: While some may offer short-term gains, long-term capital preservation favors Bitcoin.
Q: How does market saturation affect altcoins?
A: Excess supply dilutes value, making sustained growth improbable for most tokens.
Q: Is Bitcoin’s dominance permanent?
A: Trends suggest Bitcoin’s lead is strengthening, though crypto markets remain dynamic.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only. Always conduct independent research and consult financial advisors before making investment decisions.