Key Takeaways
- Double-Top Pattern Alert: Bitcoin has formed a long-term double-top, signaling potential bearish reversal.
- Divergence Concerns: RSI and MACD show prolonged bearish divergences reminiscent of past market tops.
- Cycle Crossroads: Analysts debate whether BTC’s bull run will extend or if the market cycle has peaked.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Technical Outlook
Weekly Chart Analysis
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals a double-top pattern (black icons) from December 2024 and January 2025, peaking at $109,356. While this is traditionally bearish, the price has clung to **$95,000 support** for three weeks—leaving room for invalidation if BTC rebounds.
📉 Critical Indicators:
- RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence (orange) mirrors the 2021/2022 top.
- MACD Cross: A weekly MACD bearish cross (black circle) adds to downside risks.
Daily Chart Breakdown
BTC’s daily chart shows:
- A descending resistance trendline rejecting price action (Feb. 21 bearish engulfing candle).
- Trading below the midline of its $92,500–$106,500 range.
- RSI < 50 and MACD < 0, reinforcing bearish momentum.
👉 Will Bitcoin break below $92,500?
Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Over?
Elliott Wave Perspective
Bitcoin’s fifth wave (green) since December 2025 faces two scenarios:
- Completed Cycle: Wave five matches the combined length of waves one and three (~$109k).
- Extended Rally: A 1.61 Fibonacci extension could target $142,000.
🔍 Key Level: The $91,231 low (red)** must hold to validate wave extension. A drop below confirms cycle end and risks a plunge under **$90,000.
FAQs: Addressing Reader Concerns
1. What confirms Bitcoin’s bearish trend?
A weekly close below $92,500 and sustained RSI/MACD bearish signals would solidify the downtrend.
2. Can Bitcoin still reach new highs?
Yes, if it holds $91,231** and breaks the descending trendline, a fifth-wave extension to **$142k remains possible.
3. How does this compare to past cycles?
Current RSI/MACD divergences mirror 2021’s top, but macro factors (e.g., institutional adoption) may alter outcomes.
👉 Explore real-time BTC analysis
Final Thoughts: Navigating Uncertainty
Bitcoin’s price action is at a pivotal juncture:
- Bullish Case: Hold $91,231, break resistance, and target $142k.
- Bearish Case: Breakdown triggers a drop below $90k, confirming cycle end.
Disclaimer: This analysis is informational only. Conduct independent research or consult a financial advisor before trading.
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