A critical long-term indicator for Bitcoin—the 200-day simple moving average (SMA)—is showing signs of diminished bullish momentum, coinciding with weaker-than-expected US job growth in August 2024. This development raises questions about Bitcoin’s near-term price trajectory.
Bitcoin Must Overcome the 200-Day SMA to Reverse Trend
The 200-day SMA is a cornerstone metric for assessing long-term asset trends. For Bitcoin, its current flattening suggests:
- Declining bullish pressure: The first potential bearish shift since October 2023.
- Reduced volatility: Daily price swings have narrowed to under $50 (versus $200+ earlier in 2024).
At present, Bitcoin trades at $56,840**, trailing the 200-day SMA (**$63,840) by 13.96%. Meanwhile, shorter-term SMAs (50-day and 100-day) have already turned downward, with the 100-day SMA recently crossing below the 200-day SMA—a classic bearish signal.
👉 Discover how institutional adoption could reshape Bitcoin’s future
Key Market Signals
- Analyst Insights: Ali Martinez notes a bearish reversal signal on Bitcoin’s 2-month chart via the Stochastic RSI, historically preceding corrections up to 75.5%.
- Search Interest: Google Trends data shows "Bitcoin" searches at their lowest since October 2023 (BTC ~$30,000).
- Sentiment Shift: BitMEX’s ex-CEO Arthur Hayes publicly shorted BTC, predicting a drop below $50K.
Countering this pessimism, some experts argue Bitcoin may stabilize near $55,000 before US liquidity injections revive market demand.
Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Remain Strong
Despite short-term uncertainties, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook stays robust:
- Seasonal Patterns: Analyst Crypto Jelle anticipates a potential October turnaround after summer stagnation.
- Institutional Growth: Swiss bank ZKB recently launched BTC/ETH trading and custody services, reflecting deepening institutional involvement.
Bitcoin’s price at press time: $56,018.
FAQ: Bitcoin’s 200-Day SMA and Price Trends
Why is the 200-day SMA important for Bitcoin?
It reflects long-term market sentiment. A flattening or downward trend suggests weakening bullish momentum.
What does a bearish SMA crossover indicate?
When shorter-term SMAs (e.g., 100-day) cross below longer-term ones (200-day), it often signals a downtrend.
How might institutional adoption impact Bitcoin’s price?
Increased institutional services (like ZKB’s offerings) could drive demand, offsetting retail disinterest.
👉 Explore Bitcoin’s latest institutional advancements
Could Bitcoin drop below $50,000?
While possible (per bearish forecasts), historical support near $55,000 may act as a floor.
What triggers Bitcoin’s volatility shifts?
Macroeconomic factors (e.g., US job data), institutional activity, and technical indicators collectively influence price swings.