Core Analysis of Recent Market Trends
- Global liquidity cycles have driven exceptional performance in both equity core assets (exemplified by Kweichow Moutai) and cryptocurrency (Bitcoin), showcasing strong correlation since 2020.
Key drivers: Monetary policy-induced asset repricing centered on three scarcity factors:
- Supply-limited monetary alternatives (e.g., Bitcoin)
- Technology moats (Moutai’s fermentation techniques)
- Market dominance (Moutai’s unparalleled demand-supply gap)
Comparative Valuation Trajectories (2013–Present)
| Asset | Pre-2013 Performance | Post-2013 Valuation Shift | Post-2018 Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai | Stable earnings | P/E expansion mirroring Nasdaq | Lagged growth-sector rallies |
| Bitcoin | Early adoption phase | Hyperinflation hedge narrative | Institutional adoption spike |
Structural Shifts Influencing Valuations
- 2013 Industrial Tipping Point: Global surplus in traditional sectors elevated scarcity premiums for tech (US) and consumer staples (China).
- 2018 Emerging Growth: Chinese economic rebalancing toward advanced manufacturing diluted Moutai’s relative appeal.
Bitcoin’s Accelerated Rise: Risks and Ceilings
- Catalysts: Enhanced payment utility (Apple Pay integration), ETF approvals, and institutional participation.
- Limits: Current $1T market cap = 7.1% of Fed’s balance sheet—historical lows suggest overheating risks.
- Policy Vulnerability: US Treasury’s stance on crypto’s "inefficient speculation" may trigger volatility.
2021 Allocation Strategy
- Equities: Rotation into cyclical/value stocks as bond yields rise; cautious on hyper-growth tech.
- Commodities: Oil/copper favored on reopening momentum.
- Crypto & Moutai: Short-term correction likely but long-term holds retain appeal.
👉 Explore real-time market data
👉 Dive deeper into asset scarcity dynamics
FAQs
Q: Why did Moutai and Bitcoin decouple post-2018?
A: China’s growth model pivot prioritized tech/advanced manufacturing over traditional defensive stocks.
Q: Is Bitcoin a viable dollar alternative?
A: Limited by scalability issues and regulatory headwinds despite growing institutional acceptance.
Q: How to navigate rising bond yields?
A: Shift from duration-sensitive assets to financials/energy sectors benefiting from steepening curves.