Fight until the very last moment.
"At Least One More Year of Mining Remains"
As "The Merge" approaches, Ethereum miners are less anxious than outsiders might imagine. Many remain optimistic about the future of mining, with some even doubting the merger will proceed as scheduled.
"I think the likelihood of Ethereum completing the merge this year is very low. It might not even happen next year," miner Old A told Odaily Planet Daily. "If you look at previous PoS testnets, bugs keep appearing. Given Ethereum’s track record, the August merge will likely be delayed again."
Old A’s concerns are not unfounded. During the Ropsten testnet merge in early June, bugs such as concurrency vulnerabilities, block proposal issues, and synchronization problems emerged, causing 14% of validators to go offline. Despite these challenges, the merge was eventually completed successfully.
Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin predicts that if everything goes smoothly, the merge could happen as early as August. However, developers like Tim Beiko acknowledge the uncertainty, stating it may occur between late August and November.
The ambiguity around the exact timing of the merge is one reason miners remain committed. Additionally, many believe PoW mining won’t cease immediately post-merge but will coexist with PoS for an extended period.
"After the merge, there will be a validation phase for security. Projects won’t migrate to PoS instantly, and the PoW chain will still need miners to maintain operations—possibly for a year or two," miner Old Jia explained.
Some miners are skeptical about PoS. "ETH transitioning to PoS will turn it into a digital bond, potentially inviting U.S. regulatory scrutiny," Old A added. Major mining hardware manufacturers share concerns about PoS’s regulatory challenges, fearing community consensus may split, leading to a fork.
ASIC Machines Outperform Amid Price Drops
Optimism about the future has driven miners to expand operations.
Etherscan data shows Ethereum’s hashrate hit a record 1,126 TH/s in May 2023, a 130% increase from June 2022 lows. However, recent months saw a 17% drop to 930 TH/s, attributed to ETH’s price crash from $3,000 to under $1,000.
Despite this, miners who hedged at $2,000–$3,000 report minimal impact. Some are now accumulating ETH, believing it’s oversold.
To boost resilience, many shifted to ASIC miners like Innosilicon’s A10/A11, Bitmain’s E9, and Howei’s Pineapple V1. The E9, for instance, offers six times the efficiency of GPU rigs like the RX580, with a shutdown price of just $88.
Currently, ASICs comprise 10–30% of the network’s hashrate. As ETH prices fell, GPU resale values halved, flooding secondary markets. Analysts note miners bought $3B in GPUs since 2021, now resold at steep discounts.
Experts caution against heavy investments now, especially for retail miners.
Mining Until the Last Block
"I’m a ‘bagholder’ who bought miners at peak prices last year. Break-even is still 12 months away," miner Small C said. "I hope to mine until the end. There’s too much uncertainty—no one knows what’ll happen."
For ASIC miners, ETC is the only alternative. GPUs, however, can pivot to other PoW coins (Zcash, Zclassic) or Web3 services like rendering and machine learning.
"GPUs have other uses—rendering farms, ML workloads—but none as profitable as mining," Petzold noted.
FAQs
Q: When will Ethereum’s merge happen?
A: Estimates range from August to November 2023, but delays are possible.
Q: Will PoW mining stop immediately post-merge?
A: No. PoW may persist for months or years during the transition.
Q: What’s the best miner for ETH now?
A: ASICs like Bitmain E9 offer the highest efficiency but limited post-merge options.
Q: Should I buy mining gear now?
A: Experts advise against heavy investments due to uncertainty.
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Disclaimer: This article does not constitute financial advice. Always comply with local regulations.
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